Is there a link between cardiovascular mortality and economic fluctuations?

Background: Unemployment might affect several risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is the leading cause of death globally. The characterisation of the relation between these two phenomena is thus of great significance from a public-health perspective. The main aim of this study was to estimate the association between the unemployment rate and mortality from CVD and from coronary heart disease (CHD). Additional aims were (a) to assess whether the associations are modified by the degree of unemployment protection; (b) to determine the impact of GDP on heart-disease mortality; and (c) to assess the impact of the Great Recession in this context. Methods: We used time-series data for 32 countries spanning the period 1960-2015. We applied two alternative modelling strategies: (a) error correction modelling, provided that the data were co-integrated; and (b) first-difference modelling in the absence of co-integration. Separate models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection. We also performed country-specific ARIMA-analyses. Results: Because the data did not prove to be co-integrated, we applied first-difference modelling. The estimated effect of unemployment and GDP on CVD as well as CHD was statistically insignificant across age and sex groups and across the various welfare state regimes. An interaction term capturing the possible excess effect of unemployment during the Great Recession was also statistically insignificant. Conclusions: Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that heart-disease mortality does not respond to economic fluctuations.

Stable socioeconomic inequalities in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the economic crisis: a time trend analysis in 2 Spanish settings.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have identified a decrease in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the recent economic recession. The Spanish population was severely affected by the Great Recession, however, there is little evidence on its effects on socioeconomic inequalities in ischaemic heart disease mortality. This study examines trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD). METHODS: We used linked census records with mortality registers available from the Basque Country and Barcelona city for population above 25 years, between 2001 and 04, the accelerated economic growth period of 2005-08, and 2009-12, with the last period coinciding with the Great Recession. Applying Poisson models, we calculated relative and absolute indexes of inequalities by education level for each period, age group, gender, and site. RESULTS: We found moderate age-adjusted inequalities in IHD with a gradient of increasing rates through less educational level, but no significant evidence of increasing trends in socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality, rather an inverted U-shape time trend in some groups below 75 years in relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities decrease in the last period except for women from 50 to 64 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the economic crisis has not increased socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality in two geographical settings in Spain.

Family history of premature myocardial infarction, life course socioeconomic position and coronary heart disease mortality--A Cohort of Norway (CONOR) study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To investigate self-reported family history (FH) of premature myocardial infarction (MI) in first-degree relatives as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, and assess whether any observed effect could be explained by current or life course socioeconomic position. METHODS: 130,066 participants from Cohort of Norway were examined during 1994-2003. A subgroup (n=84,631) had additional life course socioeconomic data. Using Cox proportional hazard analyses, we calculated hazard ratios (HR) for CHD mortality, assessed by linkages to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry through 2009. For subgroup analyses, we created an index of life course socioeconomic position, and assessed its role as a potential confounder in the association of FH with CHD. RESULTS: For men, MI in parents and siblings were both a significant risk factor for CHD mortality after adjusting for established risk factors and current socioeconomic conditions; the highest risk was with MI in siblings (HR: 1.44 [1.19-1.75]). For women, FH constituted significant risk after similar adjustment only for those with MI in parents plus siblings (HR: 1.78 [1.16-2.73]). Adjusting for current and life course socioeconomic conditions only marginally lowered the estimates, and those with FH did not have worse life course socioeconomic position than those without. CONCLUSIONS: FH of premature MI is an independent risk factor for CHD mortality that differs in magnitude of effect by the sex of the index person and type of familial relationship. Life course socioeconomic position has little impact on the association between FH and CHD, suggesting the effect is not confounded by this.

Acurácia do relacionamento probabilístico na avaliação da alta complexidade em cardiologia / Accuracy of probabilistic record linkage in the assessment of high-complexity cardiology procedures / Precisión de la relación probabilística en la evaluación de la alta complejidad en cardiología

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a viabilidade de estratégia de relacionamento probabilístico de bases de dados na identificação de óbitos de pacientes submetidos a procedimentos de alta complexidade em cardiologia. MÉTODOS: O custo de processamento foi estimado com base em 1.672 registros de pacientes submetidos à cirurgia de revascularização do miocárdio, relacionados com todos os registros de óbito no Brasil em 2005. A acurácia do relacionamento baseou-se em linkage probabilístico entre 99 registros de autorização de internação hospitalar de pacientes submetidos a cirurgias cardíacas em instituto de referência em cardiologia, com status vital conhecido, e todos os registros de óbito do estado do Rio de Janeiro em 2005. O linkage foi realizado em quatro etapas: padronização das bases, blocagem, pareamento e classificação dos pares. Utilizou-se a blocagem em cinco passos, com chaves de blocagem com combinação de variáveis como soundex do primeiro e último nome, sexo e ano de nascimento. As variáveis utilizadas no pareamento foram "nome completo", com a utilização da distância de Levenshtein, e "data de nascimento". RESULTADOS: O segundo e o quinto passos de blocagem tiveram os maiores números de pares formados e os maiores tempos de processamento para o pareamento. O quarto passo demandou menor custo de processamento. No estudo de acurácia, após os cinco passos de blocagem, a sensibilidade do linkage foi de 90,6 por cento e a especificidade foi de 100 por cento. CONCLUSÕES: A estratégia de relacionamento probabilístico utilizada apresenta boa acurácia e poderá ser utilizada em estudos sobre a efetividade dos procedimentos de alta complexidade e alto custo em cardiologia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the viability of a probabilistic record linkage strategy to identify patients who underwent complex cardiology procedures among the total deceased population. METHODS: The processing cost was estimated based on 1,672 records of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting that were compared with all death records in Brazil in 2005. The accuracy of the linkage strategy was based on the probabilistic linkage of 99 hospital admissions records of patients, with known vital status, who underwent cardiac surgery at a single cardiology institute, with the death records of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, in 2005. Linkage was conducted in four stages: standardizing the databases, blocking, matching, and rating peers. Blocking in five steps was used, with blocking keys formed by a combination of variables such as soundex codes for the first and last names, sex, and year of birth. The variables used for matching were "full name" with the use of Levenshtein distance and "birth date". RESULTS: The second and fifth blocking steps resulted in the largest number of formed pairs and the largest processing times for the matching. The fourth step required a lower processing cost. In the accuracy study, after five blocking steps, the sensitivity of the linkage was 90.6 percent, and the specificity was 100 percent. CONCLUSIONS: The probabilistic strategy used has high accuracy and can be used in studies of the effectiveness of high-complexity, high-cost cardiology procedures.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar la viabilidad de estrategia de relación probabilística en la identificación de pacientes sometidos a procedimientos de alta complejidad en cardiología. MÉTODOS: El costo de procesamiento fue calculado con base en 1.672 registros de pacientes sometidos a cirugía de revascularización del miocardio, relacionados con todos los registros de óbito en Brasil en 2005. La precisión de la relación se basó en linkage probabilística de 99 registros de autorización de internación hospitalaria de pacientes sometidos a cirugías cardíacas en instituto de referencia en cardiología, con status vital conocido, con todos los registros de óbito del estado de Rio de Janeiro en 2005. El linkage fue realizado en cuatro etapas: estandarización de las bases, blocaje, pareamiento y clasificación de los pares. Se utilizó blocaje en cinco pasos, con claves de blocaje con combinación de variables como soundex del primero y último nombre, sexo y año de nacimiento. Las variables utilizadas en el pareamiento fueron "nombre completo", con la utilización de la distancia de Levenshtein y "fecha de nacimiento". RESULTADOS: El segundo y el quinto pasos de blocaje tuvieron los mayores números de pares formados y los mayores tiempos de procesamiento para el pareamiento. El cuarto paso demandó menor costo de procesamiento. En el estudio de precisión, posterior a cinco pasos de blocaje, la sensibilidad del linkage fue de 90,6 por ciento y la especificidad fue de 100 por ciento. CONCLUSIONES: La estrategia de relación probabilística utilizada presenta buena precisión y podrá ser utilizada en estudios sobre la efectividad de los procedimientos de alta complejidad y alto costo en cardiología.